Iran: A Statement and an Omen

 01/17/2026

Oct7th +833

06:00 hrs UTC-8

“Under the yoke of the Islamic Republic, Iran is identified in your mind with terrorism, extremism and poverty. But the real Iran is a different Iran, a beautiful, peace-loving and flourishing Iran.” 

–Reza Pahlavi, exiled Crown Prince of Iran, Jan 15 2026

“When we talk about Iran, I am talking about the radical Shia clerics and not the people. The people of Iran are people of an ancient civilization, an ancient culture with tremendous pride and advances, who take great pride in their Persian heritage and identity, and I do not know of any nation on Earth in which there is a bigger difference between the people and those who govern them than what exists in Iran, and that is a fact that needs to be made repeatedly.” 

–US Secratary of State Marco Rubio at his nomination hearing Janurary 15th 2025

“Men are born and remain free and equal in rights.”

–Article I, Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen 1789

“Give me liberty or give me death!”

–Patrick Henry 1775

    During the week of December 29, 2025, protests broke out in Iran, initially about pricing problems and the currency crash of the Iranian Rial. Most commentators and open-source intelligence commentators got wind of it on Janurary 1st 2026 (OSINT analyst Kagan Dunlap). Within days, protests initially on food pricing evolved into mass demonstrations of people expressing long-held grievances. A lot of these protests included women publicly tearing off and burning mandated hijabs, chanting for the return of exiled Crown Prince Reza Palavi, attacks on government buildings, and even a now viral trend of lighting the Ayatollah’s picture on fire and lighting a cigarette. By Janurary 8th 2026, the Islamic Republic initiated an internet and phone blackout (NetBlocks). After this, reliable information out of Iran was difficult. Subsequent reporting indicated SpaceX’s Starlink connectivity was enabled for use in Iran, despite regime attempts to jam or disrupt satellite internet access (AP; Reuters). However, not long after the blackout started, an eyewitness account from a person who fled Iran to Turkey described atrocities and alleged mass killings by regime authorities. The eyewitness stated that ‘The Prince (Reza Pahlavi) symbolizes freedom … the people see him as a savior,’ and called on President Trump to act (Kagan Dunlap). By January 14th, 2026, Iran International reported estimates suggesting that as many as 12,000 people may have been killed by regime authorities. Reliable information from inside Iran remains difficult to obtain, hence my delay in issuing a statement. Nonetheless, the situation in Iran is dire and nearing a tipping point. My thoughts and prayers are with the People of Iran.

    Modern Iran, under clerical domination, is a lesson in what happens when a nation is overrun by Islamist forces, who use ideologically extreme movements to gain power. Now before I even begin, some may be wondering, ‘hang on a minute? Where is Iran? And why talk about it now???’. So yes, yet again a bit a recounting is in order.

    Iran is situated east of the Arabian Penninsula. It's between the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. To its north lay Azerbajian and Turkmanistan, and to its east, Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

     Back in the 1840s, the UK and Russia were engaged in the ‘Great Game’, where both vied for dominance in Central Asia. This dynamic continued well into the 20th century. However by 1941, the USSR and UK set aside their differences and entered into joint action to invade and occupy Iran from 1941 to 1946, the primary objective being to secure supply routes through the Persian Corridor to the USSR and support its war effort against Germany. During this time they made the incumbent Reza Shah Pahlavi to abdicate in favor of his son Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, setting the stage for the political currents that followed. The British and Soviets left Iran in 1946. But ideological networks rarely withdraw as cleanly as armies do. During the occupation, pro-Soviet/Communist political parties started springing up. These will become important in a bit. As time went by, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Crown Prince’s dad, launched the ‘White Revolution’ (the Revolution of the Shah and the People) which were a series of reforms. These reforms included land reform, economic modernization measures, extending the right to vote to women, various new literacy programs, welfare and social security measures, and urban and rural modernization and reconstruction. Most critics came from multiple camps, firstly those who wished for democratic reform and then, the Shia Islamist clerics who felt that these changes were too inclusive, being especially furious with provisions that would allow non-Muslims to hold office. In 1978, there would be three broad factions that were tacitly against the Shah. First were those who felt the Shah needed to end absolute monarchy and enact democratic reforms. Second were the socialists and marxists, most notably the Tudeh Party, a major Marxist movement that grew under wartime occupation and Soviet influence. Third were the Islamist Shia clerics, who were the most popular at the time. The clerics’ goals were comparatively clear: to restore Islam as the backbone of public life, undo major elements of the Shah’s White Revolution, and establish a system of clerical oversight over the state through the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih or “Guardianship of the Jurist.” By contrast, the democratic and socialist factions formed a coalition of convenience whose long-term political vision was fragmented and, in hindsight, poorly defined. When the Shah fell in 1979, the Islamists proved best organized, most coherent in their aims, and most willing to purge rivals. What followed was decades of consolidation under the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih—and the suppression of opposition, including many of those who helped topple the monarchy in the first place. Alongside decades of oppression, the Islamic Republic was involved in propping up terrorist groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Al-Quaeda. 

   What’s important to note is that the current protests in Iran, are not the first in the Islamic Republic’s history. There were many since at least 2009 and the most notable being the 2022-23 ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ Protests, which was sparked by the execution of 22-year Mahsa Amini for not wearing her hijab ‘properly’. The goals were civil, political, and women’s rights reform. Many of these demands are creeping back up in the current protests. 

     We are seeing similar dynamics play out in the United States — especially on university campuses — to those that did in 1979 Iran. With Leftist political forces explicitly aligning themselves with Islamist goals in the past 2 years. At first, the performative ‘social justice’ language becomes political authority. Then dissent is treated as contamination. Finally, fear of social punishment replaces the habit of free inquiry. Although campus drama seems small compared to national scale drama, current students across campuses will become our future educators and leaders. Issues on campuses sometimes migrate to the national scale in about 10 years. It’s still early, the tide is reversible, but time is running. Terrorism exploits any instance of freedom that is not defended effectively.

    Iran is what happens when a people get caught up in ‘social justice’, then inadvertedly lose all their freedoms, and now are desperately fighting to get their freedoms back. The Iranian people are a peace-loving people, and a freedom-yearning people. Like the Men of Lexington and Concord, and those who took the Bastille, they have reached a point where the desire for liberty and dignity outweighs the fear of repression. Let it be a lesson. History never grants freedom. Take it for granted for too long and liberty will leave. And the fight to regain freedom is bloody and arduous. Freedom is precious, be thankful for it, defend it.

Your Friend in the Shadows